Jindal Wins In Louisiana

Bobby Jindal has won the gubernatorial election in Louisiana, according to WWLT-TV. With 81% reporting, he has 53%, enough to avoid a December runoff.

Democrats should not generally be discouraged. As recent as a few weeks ago, Jindal was forecast to win by much more. And the fact that Democrats nearly forced a runoff with this incredibly popular Congressman in post-Katrina Louisiana is a big deal.

Sen. Landrieu should be somewhat concerned. A 60% win by Jindal would have been cause for panic among Landrieu's camp. This is not the panic zone, but the demographic shift in Louisiana as a result of Katrina is writ large in these results. Jindal even narrowly won Orleans parish.

WWLT-TV results
Live, Interactive Results Map

Trivia: In fact, maybe we should not be too discouraged by Jindal's victory. Since LA elections take place in odd-numbered years, they are frequently looked at as harbingers for the next year's general election. Here's some of the track record since LA became a competitve state:

1987: Democrat Roemer wins; 1988: Republican Bush elected President
1995: Republican Foster wins; 1996: Democrat Clinton reelected
2003: Democrat Babineaux-Blanco wins; Republican Bush reelected

Take heart.

Huckabee Wins Straw Poll

More on Huckabee later. He has, as of today, become a big enough story to write about. He was governor here for 10 years, and I confidently believe that he would not be a good President. Even with inheriting most of Brownback's support, I don't think he is a real threat to win the GOP nomination, but he must be on Romney and Guiliani's short lists for VP. I will have more on the Huckabee record later...

The Story Today is Huckabee (David Brody / CBN) - The Evangelical propoganda machine is out in full force for Huckabee. This is an example.

Guiliani Hits Speedbump with Evangelicals

The Family Research Council is meeting this weekend in Washington. A cattle call of Republican candidates are speaking over two days, and they are conducting a straw poll, widely expected to be won by Mike Huckabee. Surprising to many is not that Guiliani is not well-liked among this group but the level of vitriol aimed at his candidacy. I watched Tony Perkins, the head of the group, bluntly state last night on CNN that he would vote for a third party candidate before voting for Guiliani, a sentiment expressed by many of the conference's attendees.

More from MyDD

UPDATE: (4:00 pm) Huckabee wins FRC's straw poll with 51%.

Obama's Donors Nervous About Prospects

Politico.com with a very interesting piece today...


An interesting observation from the article:



When Obama's top fundraisers gathered for a national finance committee meeting in Iowa at the beginning of October, “The elephant in the room was, ‘What are we going to do, the polls, the polls, the polls,’” said one donor who was there, adding that Obama and his aides soothed the crowd with a focus on Iowa.


Iowa- where Obama is running second, at best.


Obama's top donors are very nervous about Hillary Clinton's upward movement in the polls. Recently, Obama has either plateaued or been frozen.



Pollster.com chart:

Martinsville Picks

Martinsville is my least favorite race track on the Cup circuit. Why there are two races at Mville (and a chase race to boot!) is beyond me...It is like watching a merry-go-round for hours....

My picks, if I must. I won't be watching...

Winner

24 - Gordon
48 - Johnson
5 - Kyle Busch
2 - Kurt Busch
07 - Bowyer
8 - Earnhardt
20 - Stewart
11 - Hamlin
29 - Harvick
19 - Sadler

New Clinton Ad: Trapdoor

Good ad....

Cook Political Report: VA Sen. Seat Rated "Likely Dem"

Great news for Mark Warner and Democrats' efforts to expand their Senate majority...the pre-election year polls are uniformly pointing to a huge Warner advantage, and pre-eminent prognosticator Charlie Cook is now rating this seat to likely change over.

Cook Political Link


Also today, a new poll out from the Washington Post showing a 30+ point lead for Warner over both of his prospective GOP rivals, former Gov. Jim Gilmore and Cong. Tom Davis

from MyDD