Gordon Talks Retirement: 2009 Is It?

You heard it here first. I have predicted for some time now that Jeff Gordon would not join the ranks of Ricky Rudd and Dale Jarrett and compete long after he is competitive. Validation of this theory came today from Gordon himself who says that when the Dupont sponsorship of the 24 team is over in 2010, he might be done too. ESPN.com

Much as I am not a Gordon fan, the truth is that unlike his teammate in the 48 car, Gordon oozes natural instinct and talent behind the wheel of a stockcar. He is destined to be one of the greats in the annals of NASCAR. Whether or not those of us who routinely root against him like it or not is irrelevant.

Fighting words: "Well, it's a situation and I normally would keep my mouth shut on this, but I just have a hard time doing it today. You can have your father buy your ride and write DEI a big check, but you can't buy talent."
--Tony Stewart on Paul Menard. (He's right...except for the normally keeping his mouth shut part...)


Tony Raines (?), Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Kurt Busch were the top five in final practice at Martinsville.


The Subway 500 starts at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Martinsville Picks

Martinsville is my least favorite race track on the Cup circuit. Why there are two races at Mville (and a chase race to boot!) is beyond me...It is like watching a merry-go-round for hours....

My picks, if I must. I won't be watching...

Winner

24 - Gordon
48 - Johnson
5 - Kyle Busch
2 - Kurt Busch
07 - Bowyer
8 - Earnhardt
20 - Stewart
11 - Hamlin
29 - Harvick
19 - Sadler

Charlotte picks

Winner: 24 - Mears

48 - Johnson
24 - Gordon
20 - Stewart
31 - Burton
12 - Newman
2 - Kurt Busch
1 - Truex
99 - Edwards
17 - Kenseth

That's my top 10...Casey Mears won his first Cup race in May in the Coke 600 at Lowe's. No reason to think he won't repeat.

Newman is Polesitter for Lowe's Race

Ryan Newman put the #12 Alltel Dodge on the pole for Saturday night's Nextel Cup race in Charlotte.

NASCAR.com wrap

ESPN.com

This is his 42nd career pole in Nextel Cup, and his 7th at LMS.

Jimmie Johnson, a dominant yet somewhat prissy presence at Charlotte starts 2nd. Ho hum.

Talladega Picks

I put a lot of time and thought into my picks for Talladega for this weekend's race. That was probably a waste of time because what with this being the first restrictor plate COT race it should be a madhouse. Two possibilities: 1. The "big one" at Talladega could be several big ones as that ugly batwing on the back of the cars make the cars too tight to steer. 2. This could be the most boring Talladega race in NASCAR history. In any event, here are my picks:

1. 24 - Gordon to win- I saw Jeff Gordon win at Talladega in April. He's good there, sadly. It was a flip for me between Gordon, Johnson, and Stewart, as those three have the COT figured out.

2. 48 - Johnson - Winner in spring '06 and has a good average finish at Dega. See above re: COT.

3. 2 - Kurt Busch - not thought of as a great superspeedway racer, but his avg finish at this track is enviable. (10.2 with many, many top 10s)

4. 20 - Stewart - has won at Daytona several times. Strangely, never at Talladega. He could very well break that streak this Sunday.

5. 29 - Harvick - already won the Daytona 500 and finishes well at Talladega usually.

6. 8 - Earnhardt - once the undisputed master of the Alabama track, he has not won in a while here. However, he is a force to contend with whenever NASCAR comes to Dega.

7. 1 - Truex - had a sting of bad luck at superspeedways in his early races. His last two starts have been much better and he should be in the top ten.

8. 12 - Newman - has a 19.8 avg finish at T'dega but that statistic is skewed because of freshman and sophomore non-starter efforts. He has multiple recent top tens at Dega and Daytona.

And for the superspeedways-only picks:

9. 6 - Ragan - In three superspeedway starts, he has distinguished himself. He is the leading Roush car right now at Daytona and here.

10. 38 - Gilliland - I have never put him in a top 10 before but his 9.5 avg finish at Talladega is the best of all active drivers. His pole in the Daytona wasn't bad either... RYR engines at these tracks are a well-known powerhouse.

Kansas Picks

NASCAR comes to Kansas on Sunday: The LifeLock 400 starts at noon Central Sept. 30th. I will be on a plane to St. Louis, but will hopefully be checked into the hotel in time to see the checkered flag.

Onto my picks!

1. 17-Kenseth-win


2. 99-Edwards


3. 24-Gordon


4. 20-Stewart


5. 2- Kurt Busch


6. 07-Bowyer


7. 48-JJ


8. 1-Truex


9. 01-Martin


10. 16-Biffle

That's my top 10. We'll see what happens...

The Chase Begins: New Hampshire Picks

Tomorrow is the first Chase race, at Loudon, NH. Clint Bowyer is on the pole.

My top 10 picks:

5- Kyle Busch - win

24 - Gordon

48- Johnson

31- Burton

12- Newman

2- Kurt Busch

29- Harvick

99- Edwards

1- Truex

20- Stewart

I am feeling a little tepid about my Edwards pick. My office pool picks are due before the first practice, and the highest Ford in practice yesterday was McMurray in 26th...

Richmond Picks

8 - Earnhardt - winner- And it won't make a damned bit of difference.

12 - Newman

2 - Ku. Busch

1 - Truex

29 - Harvick

20 - Stewart

24 - Gordon

48 - Johnson

5 - KY Busch

11 - Hamlin


All the drama surrounding the Chase aside, this is a pretty solid but predictable list. I took a chance on little Reed Sorenson last weekend and got burned. It won't happen twice. I hate to see the 8 win, because his fans are obnoxious, and also the "what might have been" stories will be more than any thinking person can bear, but it is what it is.

By the way, if Harvick and Busch make it into the Chase with Junior on the outside, please see this post from July 30 by, well, me predicting exactly this. It is good to be clairvoyant.

It's Official: Wed. NASCAR wrap

Gibbs to Toyota: It's a done deal.

AP wrap

NASCAR.com Propaganda piece.

NASCAR's power rankings out for the week: Busch on top.

Scenarios for Earnhardt to make Chase. Doesn't look pretty.

Johnson Wins at Fontanta; Earnhardt still Looking in

Pursuant to my Friday prediction, Jimmie Johnson won the Nextel Cup event in Fontant, CA last night. This is unfortunately his 5th win of the season.

Earhardt is still in 13th place, with a Chase berth now exceedinly unlikely. Harvick fell to 12th place after a very mediocre performance. Though not mathematically eliminated, Junior is 128 points behind 12th with only Richmond left to get into the show. NASCAR wrap

This is not a good position for Earnhardt to be in: If Kurt Busch finished 36th or better at Richmond, he's in. If Harvick finishes 32nd or better, he's in. All of that regardless of what Earnhardt does.

ESPN.com Chase coverage.

Yates will keep the #38, after all. Doug Yates, courtesy of Jayski.com:

Yates not interested in giving Dale Jr. #38: Doug Yates confirmed his team has been approached by a representative of Hendrick Motorsports about securing the #38 for Dale Earnhardt Jr. next year, but if Yates gets his way, there will be no such transfer. Earnhardt recently was denied the opportunity to take the #8 from Dale Earnhardt Inc. to Hendrick and now is considering other number options. The #38 currently is being used by David Gilliland. "Dale Jr., since he can't have what he wants, he might want the 38," said Yates, president Yates/Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing. "They're asking for the 38, and the 38 and 88 are our numbers. It's almost a little strange. It's like somebody asking if they can take your girlfriend or your wife out. We feel we're going to have the 38 and 88 [next year]." While Yates said he is not interested in parting with the number, doesn't everything in the sport have a price tag? "That's my dad's side of it," Yates said, referring to his father, Robert Yates. "But for me, these are our numbers, and we're set with them."

NASCAR Roundup - Busch on Pole

Kurt Busch beat Jimmie Johnson for the pole position at California speedway this afternoon. This is Kurt's third (correction: first) pole for the year.

Complete Lineup for Sunday's Cup event: Here

Practice speeds

Picks for Fontana

Winner- Jimmie Johnson - 48 (Ugh. I imagine that he has spent his share of time in the Minneapolis airport restroom.)

17 Kenseth
99 Edwards
2 Kurt Busch
31 Jeff Burton
11 Hamlin
20 Stewart
24 Gordon
5 KY Busch
41 Sorenson

NASCAR: Odds and Ends

Chase field pretty much set - NASCAR.com - McCarthy

-or-

Or not. But Penske is running well. Rodman @ NASCAR.com

Hendrick to buy 38 from Robert Yates Racing - combo of the 3 and the 8 - for Dale Jr.

Pre-Pocono, Dale Jr. claimed that he was "better" than Kurt Busch, better than Truex, and better than Newman- the guys he was competing against for the final berth in the Nextel Cup chase. Now he's talking about life not making the chase, almost a mathematical certainty. Pride goeth before the fall...

Backflips: Edwards Wins in Bristol

Carl Edwards logged his first non-cookie cutter NNCS win last night. Kasey Kahne oddly dominated most of the race, but Edwards had the car to beat for the last half, and no one did.

Top Ten-

Edwards
Kahne
Bowyer
Stewart
Earnhardt
Busch, Ku
Newman
Labonte
Busch, Ky
Biffle

The race for the Chase remains static. Earnhardt picked up 5 points on Busch, not nearly what he needed. Kurt has closed in. He, Truex and Harvick are all within 10 points of one another.

Results- Sharpie 500

Chase update from ESPN

I'm glad to know that I'm not the only one who thought so....ESPN columnist agrees that track resurfacing at Bristol made the race extraordinarily boring.


Regardless of point standings, if the Chase started today these would be the point standings as of New Hampshire:

Gordon (5040)
Johnson (5040)

Stewart (5030)

Busch, Ku. (5020)
Edwards (5020)

Burton (5010)
Busch, Ky. (5010)
Hamlin (5010)
Harvick (5010)
Kenseth (5010)
Truex (5010)

Bowyer (5000)

Michigan Picks

The NASCAR Nextel Cup circuit moves to Brookland, MI this weekend for the second of two Cup races at MIS for the year. My picks below:

17-Kenseth- winner - Matt, like the other Roush Fords, is good at MIS. He won this race last year and was strong in June. I happen to think that Matt Kenseth is the master of mile and a half tracks, and as soon as Roush gets its COT program up to speed (pardon the pun) I think he is due another championship.

48- Johnson- never won at Michigan (which is an amazing stat in itself) but is good at these cookie cutter tracks, generally speaking. I think he'll be in the top ten, but I doubt he'll win.

20- Stewart- has also never won at MIS, but he is HOT right now. I don't know that he'll make it four out of five (he might), but I definately see him in the top 10 on Sunday.

12- Newman- won back to back races at Michigan in 03 and 04. He needs a good run to get firmly back into the Chase hunt. I see the 12 in the top 10.

2- Busch- will also be in the top 10. He is in 12th with a mildly comfortable 100 point cushion. He knows how to get around Michigan, and given his new, so far very effective pairing with crew chief Tryson, will be in the thick of the Michigan race.

8- Earnhardt Jr. - has has terrible luck recently and will have to experience great luck to clich a Chase berth. However, he has finished top 6 in his last three MIS starts. If he is going to gain enough points on Busch to get a Chase spot, it will have to start this weekend. Another bad finish will put him out of the playoffs for good.

24 - Gordon- has been in the top 10 in an incredible 20 of 22 races this year. I can't bet against that, much as I would like to.

16 - Biffle- will be in the top 10. He is another member of the Roush squad who does very well at the cookie cutters. He has been off lately, but there have been signs of life in his team.

99 - Edwards - won the June Michigan race. Another Roushie. I am sure that he will be in the top ten, and could very well be the repear winner.

31 - Burton - JB is the best mile and a halfer in the Childress garage, and he is a very good points racer. I am sure he will post a top ten finish.

Pretty safe list, but I think I should have at least 6 or 7 right out of these lists. Statistics are very powerful predictors of finishes in these intermediate races. Ironically, the ones that I feel the least sure of are the three who each need strong finishes here vis a vis the Chase: the 12, 2, and 8.

Watkins Glen Wrap

Tony Stewart wins again. Thanks to wheel hopping by Rainbow Bright on the next to last lap, Tony now has three wins in four races. A couple of other developments of note:

* Martin Truex had a strong finish, but punted Juan Pablo Montoya, who then collected Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. An on-racetrack physical altercation between Harvick and Montoya ensued. It was amusing to watch, but their ire probably should have been directed at the #1 car. Harvick, on ESPN, expressed a desire to "kick his ass," in reference to Montoya. It will be interesting to see the penalties that come out of this mess on Tuesday.

*Junior blew a motor, devastating his Chase hopes. He came into upstate NY in 13th place, seven points behind Kurt Busch. He left in 14th, 100 points out of the Chase. And the Earnhart nation runs rock through their collective hair.

Standings post-WG

Results

Tony didn't climb a fence today--- this is the image I took at Chicago, at the beginning of his late summer run.

Watkins Glen Picks

My Picks for the Centurion Boats at the Glen Nextel Cup race to be held on Sunday:

20- Stewart- winner- The jackass in the orange car has three wins at Watkins Glen, and nearly beat Kevin Harvick last year. He will get his fourth win here on Sunday.

7- Robby Gordon- Lunatic, but good at road courses. He is better at the Glen than at Infineon. He will get a top ten. Parenthetical note: after acting like an absolute psychotic last weekend in Canada, he is trying to play nice. He has given his Villeneuve rival Marcos Ambrose a ride for the race.

24- Jeff Gordon- He has four wins at the Glen. He has not been contending for wins in the last couple of months, but has been in the top ten (and usually top five) every single week. He'll be there.

12- Newman- Ryan has been pretty good in the Finger Lakes...15.0 average finish and three top tens in five starts. Could be a great day for the 12 team. They need it.

42- Montoya- Juan Pablo will follow up his Infineon win with a stong finish at the Glen.

48- Johnson- not a good road racer, but he seems to usually (not always) eke out good finishes. His 15.2 average finish at WG is not that bad.

8- Earnhardt- He has three top tens at WG in 7 starts. Currently on the outside of the chase looking in, he needs to do well. I predict he will get a top ten, but will probably be closer to tenth than first.

29-Harvick- Last year's winner. He will be strong again. Kevin Harvick has become a really good road course racer.

60- Said- Boris Said will be in the top 10 this weekend. He lives for these races, and is the most popular road courser out there. He is also, by the way, a native New Yorker. ***see below

2- Ku Busch- I will go out on a limb (with fingers crossed) and hope that he proves me right. He is better at Infineon than WG, but he could turn in a top ten. He has two in six starts. He needs it now worse than ever. He's looking at historical performance at this track and realizes that it is a greater liklihood than not that Earnhardt will take the 12th spot away from him again this weekend. He is hungry and doesn't want that to happen.

UPDATE 8/10/07: Scratch my Said pick. Qualifying was rained out. Field set by top 43 in owners' points. Said almost would have certainly qualified well, but since he rarely is in Cup races, he will not be in the show.

Top 10 substitute pick: 11 - Hamlin - 10th last year at this race. Could repeat that performance.

KURT BUSCH WINS PENNSYLVANIA 500 WITH DOMINANT RUN

Kurt Busch had the most successful run in Pocono Speedway history today, leading a track-high 175 laps out of 200 possible. His car was absolutely dominant. Kurt won the race with a 4 second + margin. His teammate, Ryan Newman, placed 7th.

Busch edged Dale Earnhardt Jr. out of the Chase, with 5 races to go. Junior did place an unexpectedly high 2nd, so the margin between Busch at 12th and Junior at 13th is only 8 points. A mid-race shock issue threatened to turn the race into a watershed that left Junior many points behind Busch, but a good pit move under caution vaulted the weaker 8 car back into contention. Also running in the top ten were Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Casey Mears.


Busch dominant at Pocono, overtakes Junior in points - NASCAR.com



Kurt Busch dominates

Full Pennsylvania 500 Results

Standing as of Pocono

Congratulations to Kurt Busch, the #2 team, and to Penske Racing South for their tremendous win at Long Pond, Pennsylvania!

NASCAR Busch Series Rolls into Montreal

Today is the inaugural NASCAR event at Villeneuve in Montreal. 2 pm central time....

Image of the road course from Google Earth.





By the numbers, from NASCAR.com


UPDATE: Kevin Harvick wins. Ho-hum.

Lots of controversy about Robby Gordon's agressive driving. Only at a road course would he make any difference.

Pocono Picks

*Kurt Busch- PICK TO WIN- Kurt only has one win at Pocono, but he was second here twice last year and was coming on strong when the rain delay prematurely ended the race in June. He needs this win badly. Sitting 13th and 14th in points, it's do or die time for Team Penske.

*Denny Hamlin- Swept here in '06. His car was not one that could have won the race in June. He does, however, seem to have Pocono figured out and will be a strong force to contend with.

* Tony Stewart- is a world class ass. However, he has one win at Pocono. His average finish here is 13.2, which is low for Tony but he has 12 top tens in 17 races here. His team in on a roll now, and he will be in the top 10.

*Jimmie Johnson - cheats. But, his 8.1 average finish makes Northeast Pennsylvania one of his favorite stops all year. He is in the top ten this weekend, reversing his recent slide.

* Jeff Gordon - will be in the top 10 and probably in the top 5. NASCAR called the rain delay in June seconds after Jeff went on the radio to tell his team that his tires were going away from him and that he would lose if it didn't start raining. (Funny how that worked out for him...) He edged out Ryan Newman by a fender before the caution was called and would have lost had the race gone literally 5 more feet. I almost picked him again, but I think that Busch, Hamlin or Stewart are more likely winners.

*Ryan Newman - Needs a good finish here. He is still in the Chase hunt by the grace of a blown DEI engine and will not have a chance of making the field for the playoffs if he has another disastrous weekend like at Indianapolis. Pocono is one of his stronger tracks, and he had the car to beat in June. Pit strategy by Steve Latarte and intervention by NASCAR kept him from getting the win.

*Matt Kenseth - You never go wrong putting Matt in a top 10. He is just damned consistent.

* Jeff Burton- Two top 10s in 2006, and a top 15 in June. If his car is good enough, he will be there.

* Kevin Harvick- is moderately good at Pocono. He has 4 top 10s here, in 13 races. His team is also really strong at this point in the season.

* Carl Edwards - won at Pocono is 2005 and was a factor in June. He is having a really strong season and I expect that he will be in the mix. He might even win.