Jindal Wins In Louisiana

Bobby Jindal has won the gubernatorial election in Louisiana, according to WWLT-TV. With 81% reporting, he has 53%, enough to avoid a December runoff.

Democrats should not generally be discouraged. As recent as a few weeks ago, Jindal was forecast to win by much more. And the fact that Democrats nearly forced a runoff with this incredibly popular Congressman in post-Katrina Louisiana is a big deal.

Sen. Landrieu should be somewhat concerned. A 60% win by Jindal would have been cause for panic among Landrieu's camp. This is not the panic zone, but the demographic shift in Louisiana as a result of Katrina is writ large in these results. Jindal even narrowly won Orleans parish.

WWLT-TV results
Live, Interactive Results Map

Trivia: In fact, maybe we should not be too discouraged by Jindal's victory. Since LA elections take place in odd-numbered years, they are frequently looked at as harbingers for the next year's general election. Here's some of the track record since LA became a competitve state:

1987: Democrat Roemer wins; 1988: Republican Bush elected President
1995: Republican Foster wins; 1996: Democrat Clinton reelected
2003: Democrat Babineaux-Blanco wins; Republican Bush reelected

Take heart.

NC, AR, LA giving Dems more Electoral Votes

North Carolina is very close to joining Maine and Nebraska as apportion states in the Electoral College. Arkansas and Louisiana are also exploring the idea. How this works is as follows:

The winner of the overall popular vote in a state gets the two at large electoral votes. Then, the winner in each congressional district gets a vote.

As an Arkansan, I can tell you that if this had been in effect even only in this small state, Al Gore would have been President. Gore carried the 4th (Pine Bluff) and 1st (Jonesboro - Helena). He would have gotten two votes from Arkansas, and Bush would have gotten four. That would have made his total 271, or one more needed.

All three of the states exploring the change are basically red states with blue districts. This means more electoral votes for Democrats every time.

In the past, this hasn't come into play, even in the states that apportion. Maine is so blue and Nebraska is so red that the Democrat has carried both of Maine's CDs in recent elections and the GOP has carried each of Nebraska's three districts. (The Omaha - Lincoln district is competitive.)

MyDD with details.

To illustrate the impact, explore Dave Leip's Political Atlas, note the CD split in each state. (Important note: For this site, Democrats are RED and GOP is BLUE.)

Exact figures: Would have given Kerry 4 more votes in '04 and Gore 6 more in 2000 if change had been in effect in all three states.