Kansas Picks

NASCAR comes to Kansas on Sunday: The LifeLock 400 starts at noon Central Sept. 30th. I will be on a plane to St. Louis, but will hopefully be checked into the hotel in time to see the checkered flag.

Onto my picks!

1. 17-Kenseth-win


2. 99-Edwards


3. 24-Gordon


4. 20-Stewart


5. 2- Kurt Busch


6. 07-Bowyer


7. 48-JJ


8. 1-Truex


9. 01-Martin


10. 16-Biffle

That's my top 10. We'll see what happens...

Michigan Picks

The NASCAR Nextel Cup circuit moves to Brookland, MI this weekend for the second of two Cup races at MIS for the year. My picks below:

17-Kenseth- winner - Matt, like the other Roush Fords, is good at MIS. He won this race last year and was strong in June. I happen to think that Matt Kenseth is the master of mile and a half tracks, and as soon as Roush gets its COT program up to speed (pardon the pun) I think he is due another championship.

48- Johnson- never won at Michigan (which is an amazing stat in itself) but is good at these cookie cutter tracks, generally speaking. I think he'll be in the top ten, but I doubt he'll win.

20- Stewart- has also never won at MIS, but he is HOT right now. I don't know that he'll make it four out of five (he might), but I definately see him in the top 10 on Sunday.

12- Newman- won back to back races at Michigan in 03 and 04. He needs a good run to get firmly back into the Chase hunt. I see the 12 in the top 10.

2- Busch- will also be in the top 10. He is in 12th with a mildly comfortable 100 point cushion. He knows how to get around Michigan, and given his new, so far very effective pairing with crew chief Tryson, will be in the thick of the Michigan race.

8- Earnhardt Jr. - has has terrible luck recently and will have to experience great luck to clich a Chase berth. However, he has finished top 6 in his last three MIS starts. If he is going to gain enough points on Busch to get a Chase spot, it will have to start this weekend. Another bad finish will put him out of the playoffs for good.

24 - Gordon- has been in the top 10 in an incredible 20 of 22 races this year. I can't bet against that, much as I would like to.

16 - Biffle- will be in the top 10. He is another member of the Roush squad who does very well at the cookie cutters. He has been off lately, but there have been signs of life in his team.

99 - Edwards - won the June Michigan race. Another Roushie. I am sure that he will be in the top ten, and could very well be the repear winner.

31 - Burton - JB is the best mile and a halfer in the Childress garage, and he is a very good points racer. I am sure he will post a top ten finish.

Pretty safe list, but I think I should have at least 6 or 7 right out of these lists. Statistics are very powerful predictors of finishes in these intermediate races. Ironically, the ones that I feel the least sure of are the three who each need strong finishes here vis a vis the Chase: the 12, 2, and 8.

Pocono Picks

*Kurt Busch- PICK TO WIN- Kurt only has one win at Pocono, but he was second here twice last year and was coming on strong when the rain delay prematurely ended the race in June. He needs this win badly. Sitting 13th and 14th in points, it's do or die time for Team Penske.

*Denny Hamlin- Swept here in '06. His car was not one that could have won the race in June. He does, however, seem to have Pocono figured out and will be a strong force to contend with.

* Tony Stewart- is a world class ass. However, he has one win at Pocono. His average finish here is 13.2, which is low for Tony but he has 12 top tens in 17 races here. His team in on a roll now, and he will be in the top 10.

*Jimmie Johnson - cheats. But, his 8.1 average finish makes Northeast Pennsylvania one of his favorite stops all year. He is in the top ten this weekend, reversing his recent slide.

* Jeff Gordon - will be in the top 10 and probably in the top 5. NASCAR called the rain delay in June seconds after Jeff went on the radio to tell his team that his tires were going away from him and that he would lose if it didn't start raining. (Funny how that worked out for him...) He edged out Ryan Newman by a fender before the caution was called and would have lost had the race gone literally 5 more feet. I almost picked him again, but I think that Busch, Hamlin or Stewart are more likely winners.

*Ryan Newman - Needs a good finish here. He is still in the Chase hunt by the grace of a blown DEI engine and will not have a chance of making the field for the playoffs if he has another disastrous weekend like at Indianapolis. Pocono is one of his stronger tracks, and he had the car to beat in June. Pit strategy by Steve Latarte and intervention by NASCAR kept him from getting the win.

*Matt Kenseth - You never go wrong putting Matt in a top 10. He is just damned consistent.

* Jeff Burton- Two top 10s in 2006, and a top 15 in June. If his car is good enough, he will be there.

* Kevin Harvick- is moderately good at Pocono. He has 4 top 10s here, in 13 races. His team is also really strong at this point in the season.

* Carl Edwards - won at Pocono is 2005 and was a factor in June. He is having a really strong season and I expect that he will be in the mix. He might even win.