Richmond Picks

8 - Earnhardt - winner- And it won't make a damned bit of difference.

12 - Newman

2 - Ku. Busch

1 - Truex

29 - Harvick

20 - Stewart

24 - Gordon

48 - Johnson

5 - KY Busch

11 - Hamlin


All the drama surrounding the Chase aside, this is a pretty solid but predictable list. I took a chance on little Reed Sorenson last weekend and got burned. It won't happen twice. I hate to see the 8 win, because his fans are obnoxious, and also the "what might have been" stories will be more than any thinking person can bear, but it is what it is.

By the way, if Harvick and Busch make it into the Chase with Junior on the outside, please see this post from July 30 by, well, me predicting exactly this. It is good to be clairvoyant.

Johnson Wins at Fontanta; Earnhardt still Looking in

Pursuant to my Friday prediction, Jimmie Johnson won the Nextel Cup event in Fontant, CA last night. This is unfortunately his 5th win of the season.

Earhardt is still in 13th place, with a Chase berth now exceedinly unlikely. Harvick fell to 12th place after a very mediocre performance. Though not mathematically eliminated, Junior is 128 points behind 12th with only Richmond left to get into the show. NASCAR wrap

This is not a good position for Earnhardt to be in: If Kurt Busch finished 36th or better at Richmond, he's in. If Harvick finishes 32nd or better, he's in. All of that regardless of what Earnhardt does.

ESPN.com Chase coverage.

Yates will keep the #38, after all. Doug Yates, courtesy of Jayski.com:

Yates not interested in giving Dale Jr. #38: Doug Yates confirmed his team has been approached by a representative of Hendrick Motorsports about securing the #38 for Dale Earnhardt Jr. next year, but if Yates gets his way, there will be no such transfer. Earnhardt recently was denied the opportunity to take the #8 from Dale Earnhardt Inc. to Hendrick and now is considering other number options. The #38 currently is being used by David Gilliland. "Dale Jr., since he can't have what he wants, he might want the 38," said Yates, president Yates/Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing. "They're asking for the 38, and the 38 and 88 are our numbers. It's almost a little strange. It's like somebody asking if they can take your girlfriend or your wife out. We feel we're going to have the 38 and 88 [next year]." While Yates said he is not interested in parting with the number, doesn't everything in the sport have a price tag? "That's my dad's side of it," Yates said, referring to his father, Robert Yates. "But for me, these are our numbers, and we're set with them."

Update: No penalties for Harvick, Montoya

Amazing.

From NASCAR.com:

Not since the shoving match between Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth in Bristol last spring have drivers nearly come to blows at the track. But it was just a few weeks ago that Stewart was penalized for an explicative on live television.

Stewart used a curse word after winning the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard and was fined $25,000 and 25 driver points. However, NASCAR spokesman Kerry Tharp said Harvick will not be penalized for using the word "ass" on live television.

"It doesn't violate FCC [Federal Communications Commission] regulations," Tharp said.
And Tharp doesn't expect any penalties to come from the shoving match between the two drivers either.

Watkins Glen Wrap

Tony Stewart wins again. Thanks to wheel hopping by Rainbow Bright on the next to last lap, Tony now has three wins in four races. A couple of other developments of note:

* Martin Truex had a strong finish, but punted Juan Pablo Montoya, who then collected Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. An on-racetrack physical altercation between Harvick and Montoya ensued. It was amusing to watch, but their ire probably should have been directed at the #1 car. Harvick, on ESPN, expressed a desire to "kick his ass," in reference to Montoya. It will be interesting to see the penalties that come out of this mess on Tuesday.

*Junior blew a motor, devastating his Chase hopes. He came into upstate NY in 13th place, seven points behind Kurt Busch. He left in 14th, 100 points out of the Chase. And the Earnhart nation runs rock through their collective hair.

Standings post-WG

Results

Tony didn't climb a fence today--- this is the image I took at Chicago, at the beginning of his late summer run.

NASCAR Busch Series Rolls into Montreal

Today is the inaugural NASCAR event at Villeneuve in Montreal. 2 pm central time....

Image of the road course from Google Earth.





By the numbers, from NASCAR.com


UPDATE: Kevin Harvick wins. Ho-hum.

Lots of controversy about Robby Gordon's agressive driving. Only at a road course would he make any difference.

Pocono Picks

*Kurt Busch- PICK TO WIN- Kurt only has one win at Pocono, but he was second here twice last year and was coming on strong when the rain delay prematurely ended the race in June. He needs this win badly. Sitting 13th and 14th in points, it's do or die time for Team Penske.

*Denny Hamlin- Swept here in '06. His car was not one that could have won the race in June. He does, however, seem to have Pocono figured out and will be a strong force to contend with.

* Tony Stewart- is a world class ass. However, he has one win at Pocono. His average finish here is 13.2, which is low for Tony but he has 12 top tens in 17 races here. His team in on a roll now, and he will be in the top 10.

*Jimmie Johnson - cheats. But, his 8.1 average finish makes Northeast Pennsylvania one of his favorite stops all year. He is in the top ten this weekend, reversing his recent slide.

* Jeff Gordon - will be in the top 10 and probably in the top 5. NASCAR called the rain delay in June seconds after Jeff went on the radio to tell his team that his tires were going away from him and that he would lose if it didn't start raining. (Funny how that worked out for him...) He edged out Ryan Newman by a fender before the caution was called and would have lost had the race gone literally 5 more feet. I almost picked him again, but I think that Busch, Hamlin or Stewart are more likely winners.

*Ryan Newman - Needs a good finish here. He is still in the Chase hunt by the grace of a blown DEI engine and will not have a chance of making the field for the playoffs if he has another disastrous weekend like at Indianapolis. Pocono is one of his stronger tracks, and he had the car to beat in June. Pit strategy by Steve Latarte and intervention by NASCAR kept him from getting the win.

*Matt Kenseth - You never go wrong putting Matt in a top 10. He is just damned consistent.

* Jeff Burton- Two top 10s in 2006, and a top 15 in June. If his car is good enough, he will be there.

* Kevin Harvick- is moderately good at Pocono. He has 4 top 10s here, in 13 races. His team is also really strong at this point in the season.

* Carl Edwards - won at Pocono is 2005 and was a factor in June. He is having a really strong season and I expect that he will be in the mix. He might even win.