It's Official: Wed. NASCAR wrap

Gibbs to Toyota: It's a done deal.

AP wrap

NASCAR.com Propaganda piece.

NASCAR's power rankings out for the week: Busch on top.

Scenarios for Earnhardt to make Chase. Doesn't look pretty.

Johnson Wins at Fontanta; Earnhardt still Looking in

Pursuant to my Friday prediction, Jimmie Johnson won the Nextel Cup event in Fontant, CA last night. This is unfortunately his 5th win of the season.

Earhardt is still in 13th place, with a Chase berth now exceedinly unlikely. Harvick fell to 12th place after a very mediocre performance. Though not mathematically eliminated, Junior is 128 points behind 12th with only Richmond left to get into the show. NASCAR wrap

This is not a good position for Earnhardt to be in: If Kurt Busch finished 36th or better at Richmond, he's in. If Harvick finishes 32nd or better, he's in. All of that regardless of what Earnhardt does.

ESPN.com Chase coverage.

Yates will keep the #38, after all. Doug Yates, courtesy of Jayski.com:

Yates not interested in giving Dale Jr. #38: Doug Yates confirmed his team has been approached by a representative of Hendrick Motorsports about securing the #38 for Dale Earnhardt Jr. next year, but if Yates gets his way, there will be no such transfer. Earnhardt recently was denied the opportunity to take the #8 from Dale Earnhardt Inc. to Hendrick and now is considering other number options. The #38 currently is being used by David Gilliland. "Dale Jr., since he can't have what he wants, he might want the 38," said Yates, president Yates/Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing. "They're asking for the 38, and the 38 and 88 are our numbers. It's almost a little strange. It's like somebody asking if they can take your girlfriend or your wife out. We feel we're going to have the 38 and 88 [next year]." While Yates said he is not interested in parting with the number, doesn't everything in the sport have a price tag? "That's my dad's side of it," Yates said, referring to his father, Robert Yates. "But for me, these are our numbers, and we're set with them."

NASCAR Roundup - Busch on Pole

Kurt Busch beat Jimmie Johnson for the pole position at California speedway this afternoon. This is Kurt's third (correction: first) pole for the year.

Complete Lineup for Sunday's Cup event: Here

Practice speeds

NASCAR: Odds and Ends

Chase field pretty much set - NASCAR.com - McCarthy

-or-

Or not. But Penske is running well. Rodman @ NASCAR.com

Hendrick to buy 38 from Robert Yates Racing - combo of the 3 and the 8 - for Dale Jr.

Pre-Pocono, Dale Jr. claimed that he was "better" than Kurt Busch, better than Truex, and better than Newman- the guys he was competing against for the final berth in the Nextel Cup chase. Now he's talking about life not making the chase, almost a mathematical certainty. Pride goeth before the fall...

Backflips: Edwards Wins in Bristol

Carl Edwards logged his first non-cookie cutter NNCS win last night. Kasey Kahne oddly dominated most of the race, but Edwards had the car to beat for the last half, and no one did.

Top Ten-

Edwards
Kahne
Bowyer
Stewart
Earnhardt
Busch, Ku
Newman
Labonte
Busch, Ky
Biffle

The race for the Chase remains static. Earnhardt picked up 5 points on Busch, not nearly what he needed. Kurt has closed in. He, Truex and Harvick are all within 10 points of one another.

Results- Sharpie 500

Chase update from ESPN

I'm glad to know that I'm not the only one who thought so....ESPN columnist agrees that track resurfacing at Bristol made the race extraordinarily boring.


Regardless of point standings, if the Chase started today these would be the point standings as of New Hampshire:

Gordon (5040)
Johnson (5040)

Stewart (5030)

Busch, Ku. (5020)
Edwards (5020)

Burton (5010)
Busch, Ky. (5010)
Hamlin (5010)
Harvick (5010)
Kenseth (5010)
Truex (5010)

Bowyer (5000)

KURT BUSCH WINNER AT MICHIGAN

It was worth the wait. After leading the most laps, Kurt Busch won the 3M 400 at Michigan International Speedway this afternoon. Still in 12th position (and Chase qualified) he has expanded his lead over #13 Dale Earnhardt Jr. to over 160 points. Great job, Miller Lite team.





After two wins in three races, Kurt has got to be considered a championship contender.

Results

Standings

Busch maturing, charging- NASCAR.com

Race Recap - Charlotte Observer

Earnhardt Accepts Blame for Mediocre Finish- To the chagrin of the Earnhardt nation (not a very attractive group, altogether) his chase hopes have all but evaporated.

Wanna see somthing funny? Here is the DEI official recap of Michigan. It doesn't even mention Junior until 19 paragraphs in.

Michigan Picks

The NASCAR Nextel Cup circuit moves to Brookland, MI this weekend for the second of two Cup races at MIS for the year. My picks below:

17-Kenseth- winner - Matt, like the other Roush Fords, is good at MIS. He won this race last year and was strong in June. I happen to think that Matt Kenseth is the master of mile and a half tracks, and as soon as Roush gets its COT program up to speed (pardon the pun) I think he is due another championship.

48- Johnson- never won at Michigan (which is an amazing stat in itself) but is good at these cookie cutter tracks, generally speaking. I think he'll be in the top ten, but I doubt he'll win.

20- Stewart- has also never won at MIS, but he is HOT right now. I don't know that he'll make it four out of five (he might), but I definately see him in the top 10 on Sunday.

12- Newman- won back to back races at Michigan in 03 and 04. He needs a good run to get firmly back into the Chase hunt. I see the 12 in the top 10.

2- Busch- will also be in the top 10. He is in 12th with a mildly comfortable 100 point cushion. He knows how to get around Michigan, and given his new, so far very effective pairing with crew chief Tryson, will be in the thick of the Michigan race.

8- Earnhardt Jr. - has has terrible luck recently and will have to experience great luck to clich a Chase berth. However, he has finished top 6 in his last three MIS starts. If he is going to gain enough points on Busch to get a Chase spot, it will have to start this weekend. Another bad finish will put him out of the playoffs for good.

24 - Gordon- has been in the top 10 in an incredible 20 of 22 races this year. I can't bet against that, much as I would like to.

16 - Biffle- will be in the top 10. He is another member of the Roush squad who does very well at the cookie cutters. He has been off lately, but there have been signs of life in his team.

99 - Edwards - won the June Michigan race. Another Roushie. I am sure that he will be in the top ten, and could very well be the repear winner.

31 - Burton - JB is the best mile and a halfer in the Childress garage, and he is a very good points racer. I am sure he will post a top ten finish.

Pretty safe list, but I think I should have at least 6 or 7 right out of these lists. Statistics are very powerful predictors of finishes in these intermediate races. Ironically, the ones that I feel the least sure of are the three who each need strong finishes here vis a vis the Chase: the 12, 2, and 8.

Watkins Glen Wrap

Tony Stewart wins again. Thanks to wheel hopping by Rainbow Bright on the next to last lap, Tony now has three wins in four races. A couple of other developments of note:

* Martin Truex had a strong finish, but punted Juan Pablo Montoya, who then collected Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. An on-racetrack physical altercation between Harvick and Montoya ensued. It was amusing to watch, but their ire probably should have been directed at the #1 car. Harvick, on ESPN, expressed a desire to "kick his ass," in reference to Montoya. It will be interesting to see the penalties that come out of this mess on Tuesday.

*Junior blew a motor, devastating his Chase hopes. He came into upstate NY in 13th place, seven points behind Kurt Busch. He left in 14th, 100 points out of the Chase. And the Earnhart nation runs rock through their collective hair.

Standings post-WG

Results

Tony didn't climb a fence today--- this is the image I took at Chicago, at the beginning of his late summer run.

Reaction to Busch's Pocono Win

USA Today's wrap of the Pennsylvania 500.

Sports Illustrated

Yahoo! Sports

Jeff Gordon has nice things to say.

Unseats Earnhardt in chase standings. Magic shock, my ass. More like "magic unexplained debris caution." Right when Jr. needed it. How convenient...

KURT BUSCH WINS PENNSYLVANIA 500 WITH DOMINANT RUN

Kurt Busch had the most successful run in Pocono Speedway history today, leading a track-high 175 laps out of 200 possible. His car was absolutely dominant. Kurt won the race with a 4 second + margin. His teammate, Ryan Newman, placed 7th.

Busch edged Dale Earnhardt Jr. out of the Chase, with 5 races to go. Junior did place an unexpectedly high 2nd, so the margin between Busch at 12th and Junior at 13th is only 8 points. A mid-race shock issue threatened to turn the race into a watershed that left Junior many points behind Busch, but a good pit move under caution vaulted the weaker 8 car back into contention. Also running in the top ten were Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin, and Casey Mears.


Busch dominant at Pocono, overtakes Junior in points - NASCAR.com



Kurt Busch dominates

Full Pennsylvania 500 Results

Standing as of Pocono

Congratulations to Kurt Busch, the #2 team, and to Penske Racing South for their tremendous win at Long Pond, Pennsylvania!

Chase Predictions

Most of the field for the Chase for the Nextel Cup is set, even with five races until Richmond.

Here are my predictions about who will complete the field.

• Gordon - He built up a huge lead in April and May, and it remains. This is supposed to be his "drive for five" season. However, he has never done well since the old Winston system gave way to the Chase system. He doesn't seem to be a good enough points racer to get it done. He will go in as the leader, but will not win the championship.
• Hamlin - seems to be firmly locked into second. Could win the championship. Should be a strong contender for victories in at least two chase races: New Hampshire and Phoenix.
• Kenseth - the fantasy racer's racer. He will be strong in the chase. He is good at most tracks (not great at superspeedways or roadcourses). The Chase is so heavy with mile and halfs on which he excels that he is my pick for the championship.
• Burton - will make it in with no problem. He choked about midway through the chase last year. I don't forsee him being a serious contender all the way to Homestead, but I would love it if he were.
• Stewart - After missing the Chase last year and then dominating the Chase period as a non-contender, I expect Tony to unfortunately be in the thick of the hunt for the Cup all the way to Homestead. He is my pick for the silver medal. He might win it all.
• Harvick - A master at flat tracks and not bad anywhere. He is a jerk of the highest order, but should go in about fifth or sixth and finish the season a little higher.
• Johnson - My fantasies of his precipitous fall continuing aside, we all know that he will be there in the end. He hasn't won a race since May and hasn't contended for a win in almost as long, but there is not a better points racer in the series. He's 9th now, but will be okay.
• Kyle Busch - will be in the Chase and will perform better in the playoffs than he did last year. He could win almost anywhere. He will not win the championship.
• Edwards - He will be in the chase and will win at probably Atlanta and Texas in the fall. He might get a top five out of the season.
• Bowyer- Third Childress car out of three in the Chase. He's got to be enjoying this. My prediction: He will win a race before the year is over.
• Truex - Surprise of the season. Martin Truex had a great May and June and is tentatively there. He is still in a position where he could fall out, but I think that he wants a Chase berth as much, if not more than, anyone. His suddenly aloof teammate could learn something from Truex about fire in the belly.
• Kurt Busch - He will grab the 12th spot from Junior. Prone to mistakes and overagressiveness, Busch still is looking at about 3 or 4 races in the leadup to the chase that should be generous to him. (Watkin's Glen, Pocono and Michigan are all tracks that, while not his best, he is traditionally a lot stronger than Junior.) I think that Busch will get the spot, probably with fifty or so points to spare.

Six weeks out, those are my predictions.

Indy - Results and Thoughts

Tony Stewart wins again. And then cusses the ESPN interviewer out. Nice. Real nice.

Results here.

Ryan Newman was the first potential chase contender out. :( He was loose and hit the wall. This probably nixes his chase hopes. He fell one spot to 14th, roughly 70 points out of 12th place. His teammate, Kurt Busch, switched places with him, and moved the 13th. He is 12 points behind Junior. See last week's post on this topic.

Newman might become Richard Childress' fourth team next year. Hard to blame him after looking at the crappy car the Penske garage gave him to drive today.

Jimmie Johnson got caught up in a crash, tried to repair the damage, blew a tire, hit the wall, and had his 2nd consecutive DNF. Uncharacteristic, but nice to see.

Standings here.

My chase predictions later tonight. Only six races left until the chase starts.