Monday, September 10, 2007

Outlook bad for Senate GOP

Sen. Hagel (R-NE) not running for reelection. Ordinarily, Nebraska would remain a red seat, however, uberpopular Bob Kerrey (wiki) is considering running to reclaim his old seat. This makes Nebraska another huge headache for Republicans heading into 2008.

Rothenberg via RCP

Current school of thought, along with my own thoughts on Dems' Senate prospects for 2008:

Likely Pickups
  1. Virginia- Switching Warners, switching parties
  2. Colorado- Allard is retiring, and Udall is the heavy favorite
  3. New Hampshire- Assuming former Gov. Shaheen runs, she will easily defeat Sen. Sununu
  4. Nebraska- If former Sen. Kerrey runs, he is the favorite by far

Possible Pickups

  1. Minnesota- If Dems can nominate someone other than Al Franken...Coleman loses.
  2. Maine- The war is unpopular and could carry Sen. Susan Collins out.
  3. Oregon- No top tier challenger to Gordon Smith and he is still behind.

Possible GOP Pickups

  1. Louisiana- Sen. Landrieu would be a victim of changing demographics post-Katrina, but still no top notch challenger has emerged.
  2. South Dakota- If Sen. Tim Johnson, who had a stroke last winter, runs he wins. If not, it will likely be Governor Rounds in a romp.


Anonymous said...

If you have friends or family in Oregon, please let them know about the campaign to Stop Gordon Smith. Anti-choice, anti-environment, and pro-Bush, he's got to go.

Please check out and spread the word.

Anonymous said...

Good synopsis. I would also add NM to the list- even if Domenici runs he is in trouble.