New Polls Good News For Hillary! and B.H. Obama

New polls from ARG in NH, IA , and SC. They state that Hillary has moved into a commanding lead in Iowa. Obama has moved into a tie with her in New Hampshire, and leads within the MoE in South Carolina. These numbers, while good news for both candidates, seem a little screwy.

South Carolina poll (Has Obama really gained 12 points in a month?)
Iowa poll (Edwards has dropped that much?)
New Hampshire poll (Independents prefer Hillary, and Dems prefer Obama? That's strange.)

The numbers are out on the Republican side too, and they look good for Giuliani and Romney.

Jonathan Singer from MyDD shares my skepticism on these new poll numbers.


The home team weighs in on the juicy Stevens story in Alaska.

NASCAR: Stewart Fined

Tony Stewart is an unspeakable ass.

He holds a grudge against ESPN so he started cussing at his interviewer after his win at the Brickyard on Sunday. Today he was fined 25K / 25 points. Should have been more.

Ganassi ascendant.

Monday NASCAR Roundup

***Be sure to see my chase predictions, below.

The story of the hunt for the 12th spot in the Chase: Indy edition.

From Jayski...Update on yesterday's rumors that Newman was leaving Penske:

Newman's status up in the air? to RCR? denied: #12-Ryan Newman’s future
continues to be a question mark in the NASCAR garage [Jayski note: Newman is
signed with Penske at least thru 2008], and it’s not clear if he will be back
with car owner Roger Penske next season. If not, Newman could become a candidate
for the fourth Richard Childress team.(Winston
Salem Journal)(7-26-2007)

UPDATE: ESPN2's Marty Smith reported on Sunday's NASCAR Now that there is
no merit to any Ryan Newman laving Penske Racing rumors and Newman has a
contract thru at least 2008.(7-29-2007)

Monday Politics Roundup

Big News from Capitol Hill:

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), the senior Republican in the Senate and former chair of the Appropriations Committee has been targeted by the FBI. They have searched his home in Alaska. This is part of a public corruption investigation.

This has long been considered a safe seat for Republicans. It has also been thought to be safe even in an open race, with a Stevens retirement. It might be pickup fodder for Dems if Stevens runs again. This is the most blatant, public acknowledgment of Stevens' connection with the investigation, but it has long been rumored. Here is Rothenberg's rating from last week. Will be interesting to see if it changes.

This is the NYT's piece on Obama's state legislative career today. Largely biographical in nature, it is neither overwhelmingly positive or negative.

Chase Predictions

Most of the field for the Chase for the Nextel Cup is set, even with five races until Richmond.

Here are my predictions about who will complete the field.

• Gordon - He built up a huge lead in April and May, and it remains. This is supposed to be his "drive for five" season. However, he has never done well since the old Winston system gave way to the Chase system. He doesn't seem to be a good enough points racer to get it done. He will go in as the leader, but will not win the championship.
• Hamlin - seems to be firmly locked into second. Could win the championship. Should be a strong contender for victories in at least two chase races: New Hampshire and Phoenix.
• Kenseth - the fantasy racer's racer. He will be strong in the chase. He is good at most tracks (not great at superspeedways or roadcourses). The Chase is so heavy with mile and halfs on which he excels that he is my pick for the championship.
• Burton - will make it in with no problem. He choked about midway through the chase last year. I don't forsee him being a serious contender all the way to Homestead, but I would love it if he were.
• Stewart - After missing the Chase last year and then dominating the Chase period as a non-contender, I expect Tony to unfortunately be in the thick of the hunt for the Cup all the way to Homestead. He is my pick for the silver medal. He might win it all.
• Harvick - A master at flat tracks and not bad anywhere. He is a jerk of the highest order, but should go in about fifth or sixth and finish the season a little higher.
• Johnson - My fantasies of his precipitous fall continuing aside, we all know that he will be there in the end. He hasn't won a race since May and hasn't contended for a win in almost as long, but there is not a better points racer in the series. He's 9th now, but will be okay.
• Kyle Busch - will be in the Chase and will perform better in the playoffs than he did last year. He could win almost anywhere. He will not win the championship.
• Edwards - He will be in the chase and will win at probably Atlanta and Texas in the fall. He might get a top five out of the season.
• Bowyer- Third Childress car out of three in the Chase. He's got to be enjoying this. My prediction: He will win a race before the year is over.
• Truex - Surprise of the season. Martin Truex had a great May and June and is tentatively there. He is still in a position where he could fall out, but I think that he wants a Chase berth as much, if not more than, anyone. His suddenly aloof teammate could learn something from Truex about fire in the belly.
• Kurt Busch - He will grab the 12th spot from Junior. Prone to mistakes and overagressiveness, Busch still is looking at about 3 or 4 races in the leadup to the chase that should be generous to him. (Watkin's Glen, Pocono and Michigan are all tracks that, while not his best, he is traditionally a lot stronger than Junior.) I think that Busch will get the spot, probably with fifty or so points to spare.

Six weeks out, those are my predictions.

Indy - Results and Thoughts

Tony Stewart wins again. And then cusses the ESPN interviewer out. Nice. Real nice.

Results here.

Ryan Newman was the first potential chase contender out. :( He was loose and hit the wall. This probably nixes his chase hopes. He fell one spot to 14th, roughly 70 points out of 12th place. His teammate, Kurt Busch, switched places with him, and moved the 13th. He is 12 points behind Junior. See last week's post on this topic.

Newman might become Richard Childress' fourth team next year. Hard to blame him after looking at the crappy car the Penske garage gave him to drive today.

Jimmie Johnson got caught up in a crash, tried to repair the damage, blew a tire, hit the wall, and had his 2nd consecutive DNF. Uncharacteristic, but nice to see.

Standings here.

My chase predictions later tonight. Only six races left until the chase starts.

It's Race Day! What is going on in Indianapolis?

Reed Sorenson on the pole and fastest by far in practice. Toyota wins the Busch Race...

Could be a very interesting race.