Senate Roundup: 2008

This week, Charlie Cook, at the Cook Political Report, changed his ranking of the Virginia Senate race to "Likely Dem Takeover." Virginia is the Senate seat that is most likely to change from red to blue in 2008. But there are many other possibilities. Personally, I don't think that the map justifies a lot of optimism about reaching a filibuster-proof majority (60 seats) in '08. but I do think that there is a good chance to reach 55 - 57. Bearing in mind that pre-2006, Democrats held 45 seats in the Senate this is a good situation for our party. Update on other possibilities:

New Hampshire: With former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in the race, this is definately our second best pickup opportunity. She is leading Sen. John Sununu by double digits in most polls. This is not a good situation for an incumbent. Sununu was never a particularly good fit for New Hampshire, and I was somewhat surprised when he defeated Shaheen in 2002. That year was a disaster for Democrats and it is doubtful he would have won any other time. Since '02, John Kerry won NH, which turned out to presage a romp for Dems in the Granite state in 2006. Both GOP congressmen were defeated by relatively unknown Democrats. There were shifts in the state legislature, too. Point is: Sununu's state has gone blue on him, and he's likely toast.

New Mexico: If Bill Richardson loses the presidential nomination, a virtual certainty, he will have a choice to make. He can file to run for the vacancy created by the retirement of scandal-plagued longtime Sen. Pete Domenici or return to Sante Fe and wait on a call for a possible VP run. If he runs for Senate, this is a Dem pickup. If not, it's even at best. Both Cong. Heather Wilson and Cong. Steven Pearce are running for the GOP nod. The picture on the Dem side is less clear.

Nebraska: If Bob Kerry runs to reclaim his old seat, this will be a clash of titans between he and Agriculture Sec. Johanns. If Kerry declines to run, this seat will likely remain in the GOP column.

Colorado: Sen. Allard is retiring. The Democrat running, Cong. Mark Udall, is a slight favorite, and a victory by him would give Colorado two Democratic Senators for the first time Ben Nighthorse Campbell changed parties. Cong. Bob Shaffer is a conservative Republican who is a little behind Udall now. While this race is far from a done deal, having the Democratic convention in his backyard is not good news for Shaffer. If 2008 is a blue wave, Shaffer will likely be a casualty. For now, though, the outcome of this race is not certain.

Oregon: GOP Sen. Gordon Smith isn't the most conservative Republican in the Senate, but he is still an odd choice for Oregon. It's not too late for the DSCC to recruit a top-tier challenger, because currently announced Dem Jeff Merkely isn't of the ilk that will oust a two term Senator. This will be a lost opportunity if there is not an emergency recruitment intervention.

Minnesota: MN is the rare state that gave Democrats a better margin in 2004 than in 2000. Norm Coleman, the incumbent Republican, is an Iraq war supporter who won in 2002 because Sen. Wellstone was killed in an airplane crash and his funeral was offensive to a lot of swing voters. It was an aggressively partisan service, and Coleman narrowly bested emergency fill in former VP Walter Mondale. Mike Ceresi and Al Franken (yes, that Al Franken) are running better than expected campaigns, but I think that there must be better candidates in Minnesota who could take on Coleman. But, hey, on the other hand, this is the state that elected Jesse Venture. Maybe Franken would be a good fit...

Maine: If Cong. Tom Allen can successfully make this race about Iraq and George Bush, he will beat Susan Collins in a repeat of last year's Rhode Island race. Maine is a pretty blue state, but Collins in popular. Even though she pledged to serve only two terms, she will walk to a third term if Allen can't tie her to the war and the President.

Alaska: Ted Stevens is old and crooked. His house in Alaska was raided recently by the FBI. He used to be almost automatically reelected, but the dynamic has changed for this race. If Stevens runs, this will be a very competitive race. Democrat Ethan Berkowitz seems to be a stellar candidate. If Stevens retires, that actually helps the GOP keep the seat.

Louisiana: Bobby Jindal was elected governor tonight, avoiding a runoff and winning in what, pre-Katrina, were Democratic areas (Orleans parish e.g.). Mary Landrieu is in trouble. This could be our one loss in Senate races in 2008. It's not Landrieu's fault: she has been a decent Senator. The demographics of Louisiana changed in one week. As substantial out-migration due to the hurricane took place, so went a large portion of Landrieu's base. She can still pull it out- her GOP challenger, John Kennedy, was a Democrat until a few months ago. But this will be a tough race.

It's a good map for Democrats. However, we need some recruitment help in Oregon and Minnesota. Tom Allen must start now to tie Susan Collins to the war. Large amounts of money need to be budgeted by the DSCC for Colorado and Louisiana particularly. We are mostly playing offense, and that's a good indicator. We could realistically be looking at a 5 or 6 seat pickup.

The Friday Line - Senate race ranking from Cilizza at the Washington Post- 10/19/07

Outlook bad for Senate GOP

Sen. Hagel (R-NE) not running for reelection. Ordinarily, Nebraska would remain a red seat, however, uberpopular Bob Kerrey (wiki) is considering running to reclaim his old seat. This makes Nebraska another huge headache for Republicans heading into 2008.

Rothenberg via RCP

Current school of thought, along with my own thoughts on Dems' Senate prospects for 2008:

Likely Pickups

1. Virginia- Switching Warners, switching parties
2. Colorado- Allard is retiring, and Udall is the heavy favorite
3. New Hampshire- Assuming former Gov. Shaheen runs, she will easily defeat Sen. Sununu
4. Nebraska- If former Sen. Kerrey runs, he is the favorite by far

Possible Pickups

1. Minnesota- If Dems can nominate someone other than Al Franken...Coleman loses.
2. Maine- The war is unpopular and could carry Sen. Susan Collins out.
3. Oregon- No top tier challenger to Gordon Smith and he is still behind.

Possible GOP Pickups

1. Louisiana- Sen. Landrieu would be a victim of changing demographics post-Katrina, but still no top notch challenger has emerged.
2. South Dakota- If Sen. Tim Johnson, who had a stroke last winter, runs he wins. If not, it will likely be Governor Rounds in a romp.

Daily political roundup

Clinton comfortably in command, says this Times of London piece. It is safe to say that she has exceeded expectations as a candidate thus far, as the author notes.

Senate Guru is up with his Friday roundup of the movement of the week in 08 Senate races.

The Friday Line, via WaPo / Cilizza, ranks the same Senate races for the first time in a while. Still looks good for us heading into next year's elections. CO, VA, NH, MN, KY (you read that right), ME, OR and maybe AK look good for red to blue flips. Recruitment has become a factor in the Republicans' travails. Louisiana (Landrieu) is starting to look more like a missed opportunity for them particularly.

Monday Politics Roundup

Big News from Capitol Hill:

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), the senior Republican in the Senate and former chair of the Appropriations Committee has been targeted by the FBI. They have searched his home in Alaska. This is part of a public corruption investigation.

This has long been considered a safe seat for Republicans. It has also been thought to be safe even in an open race, with a Stevens retirement. It might be pickup fodder for Dems if Stevens runs again. This is the most blatant, public acknowledgment of Stevens' connection with the investigation, but it has long been rumored. Here is Rothenberg's rating from last week. Will be interesting to see if it changes.

This is the NYT's piece on Obama's state legislative career today. Largely biographical in nature, it is neither overwhelmingly positive or negative.

The Friday Mammary Roundup

Hillary! has boobs and she knows how to use them. A fundraising letter about your cleavage seems to be an odd postscript to a week in which she scored lots of points in many circles vis-a-vis being a serious potential President.

From Real Clear Politics: Hillary beats Obama this week.

New York Times weighs in on 2008 Congressional battle.

Finally updated- the Federal Election Commission with findraising totals and an interactive map for the Presidential race through 2q 07.