Ames Straw Poll Results

The results are in! Romney wins, but not nearly by the margin many had predicted. After all the money he spent on the straw poll, he only got 31.5% of the total.

The real suprise of the poll was the strength of the Huckabee number. Huckabee, former governor of this state, got over 18% of the votes. This is much more than expected. It should help him raise more money, his Achilles' heel, and could label him as the true conservative alternative to the left-of-Republican center frontrunners. In edging out Brownback, he could really send that campaign, his chief rival for evangelical votes, into a tailspin. Or not...after all, even though it was a mild surprise for Huck to beat Brownback, the true margin between them was a little less than 400 votes.

To highlight the Republican faithful's disappointment with their choices, it is worth mentioning that turnout at the Ames poll was sharply down from the last such event in 2000.

Other takes:

RCP: Win for Romney and Huckabee, neutral for Brownback, Tommy Thompson to withdraw. (Does it matter?)

My DD

Andrew Sullivan: Big Day for Huckabee

My predictions were close-ish:

Switch the 2 and the 3 and the 4 and the 5 and I was right...

Somone has a Healthy Ego

Mitt Romney, defending his sons' not enlisting in the military:

"One of the ways my sons are showing support for our nation is helping to get me elected, because they think I'd be a great president."

Monday Wrap

Interesting details about the evolution of the Clinton / Obama relationship. From the New York Times. Apparently, she doesn't "very much like Barack."

New week, another new high for Hillary in the Rasmussen tracking poll. Rasmussen analysis: Hillary will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee.

More on the controversy about Hillary's poor choice of words vis-a-vis lobbyists at the Yearly Kos convention. From My DD. Her point is well taken, but it did seem like she was defending lobbyists. However, overall, her reception at Yearly Kos, while chilly, was not as bad as it could have been. For a group of liberal bloggers not to throw rotten vegetables at Hillary! as she enters a room is a good day for her.

The Fix's wrap on the GOP's Iowa debate yesterday. I think that Romney is a little nutty, but his "Dr. Strangelove / Jane Fonda" comment about Obama was particularly cutting. Even a stopped clock is right once in a while...

Thursday Roundup

South Carolina Poll: Hillary +15 (and this was supposed to be Obama's best shot in early primaries....) This is a post-debate poll.

"Don't fuss at me..." Fred Thompson gets heckled and responds. From CNN.

And Romney weighs in on the Clinton-Obama fight.

So much for that Bush economy:

37 million Americans living below the poverty line.
28 million working Americans without any health insurance whatsoever.
Housing starts at a four year low.
The previously strong stock market tumbled today.
Heckuva job.

The You Tube Debate -- Who Won?

The debate is over. It was an interesting experiment that ultimately, in my view, failed. It is great to have questions from viewers, but the singing rednecks, the talking snowman, the hip-hop No Child Left Behind questioner all were beneath the dignity of a Presidential debate. I hope that when CNN holds its Republican You Tube debate in September, it is a bit more serious. On to the winners / losers:

Winners

*Clinton- As in all the other debates, she was the most Presidential and was very compelling. The Senator's handling of the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton question was masterful. It is clear that any foreign policy question that she gets she answers through a general election scope, and is more knowledgeable than any other candidate except Biden. She got more mileage out of the Edelman letter and also made Elizabeth Edwards look petty for her comments last week.

*Biden - I just find Joe Biden awfully well spoken and brave. It is not a popular thing to do in a Democratic debate to throw water on Richardson's "get out now" rhetoric on Iraq, but it is responsible. In fact (again from a general election perspective) Biden and Hillary! are the only candidates who, throughout the primary season, have shown responsibility and measured ideas for exiting Iraq. They are both plausible commanders-in-chief. Biden makes me wistful: what might have been had it not been for that Neil Kinnock ugliness in 1987...

* Edwards - I will begrudgingly admit that John Edwards improved his standing tonight. In fact, his debate performance was just okay until the health care question came about. His answer on that question was fantastic. His frustration was, I am sure, contrived. His well-known financial security makes any personal concerns about health care remote for him. All of that aside, it was compelling and for perhaps the second time in five years of watching John Edwards, I was moved by something he said. Usually he gives me the creeps.

Losers

Obama - I know that we are six months from the Iowa caucuses. I know that a lot can happen between now and January. I know that he is the great hope of the nation (note the sarcasm), but Obama needs to make a break if he is to stop the increasingly inevitable Clinton nomination. He does attack her a bit, but it is too nuanced for it to make any impact at all. His debate performance tonight was about the same as the others-- just okay. He also needs to start speaking with some specificity about something -- anything. His buzzwords are tired. "Fighting cyncism," "hope," "fundamentally changing Washington" are just words. Without a plan of action, they do not a platform make.

We learned that he is against the war, against deficits, against underinsurance, and is against- gasp!- child molestation. What a marvel! Somebody please rewrite Profiles in Courage! The more of Obama I see, the more embarrassed I am that he is going to even be perhaps the silver medalist in this contest. He simply is not qualified- period. With greater exposure, the more it shows. Hillary made him look foolish for his answer on diplomacy with Iran and Syria. Oh, and ABC caught him exaggerating. LINK

Richardson - He wants to be in the top tier so badly. In the debates, he looks unprepared, ill-informed and uncomfortable. He was borderline inarticulate at times. Senator Biden made him look dangerously ill-informed on his Iraq withdrawal "plan." The Richardson "plan" (essentially to run ripshod out of Iraq in six months with no residual troops) would cost lives both because of the rapidity of the withdrawal and because of the lack of protection for American civilians remaining. Richardson seemed not to have considered this, where a commander-in-chief would have. That is Richardson's problem right now--he appears to be not *quite* President material.

UPDATE: 11:09 PM - The reaction from the debate has begun to flow in:

Hillary wins the InstaPoll from SurveyUSA. Link (And has favorables 10% higher than Obama).

John Edwards hated Hillary's jacket, and says so.

Um, and Mitt Romney had this to say. I really hope that the Republicans nominate this moron. I'm thinking 40 state landslide for Democrats if they do.

Pre-Debate Roundup

Today's Political News:

Two new national polls out (Rasmussen and Washington Post), and Hillary has a steady and growing lead in both. Check out the RCP averages for the Democratic nomination here.

ABC's The Note with a weekend roundup. Includes analysis of new WaPo poll, the latest weird moment of the Romney campaign, and a debate preview.

More on the Romney debacle from MyDD. This guy's nomination would be a gift for any Democratic nominee.

John Sununu (Endangered R - NH) doesn't want President Bush to campaign with him. Here.

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), prostitute patron and moral arbiter, might not be out of legal trouble.

The debate starts soon.

Update: The Romney picture.