Hastert to Resign This Year

Denny Hastert, who was Speaker for almost 10 years, has decided to call it quits...this year. Good riddance.

From Swing State

David Yepsen's Latest Jewel

David Yepsen from the Des Moines Register is developing a real reputation for being Obama's lapdog. He is a far cry from the Yepsen of past caucuses, who provided insights into the development of the campaigns in Iowa. Now, he seems to have made a career of Clinton bashing.

Hoping against hope, his latest column is wrought with one-sided analysis against Clinton. From today's DMR.

Some of my favorite parts of the column:

*In Iowa, Clinton leads the Democratic pack with 29 percent of the vote. That means 71 percent of the likely Democratic caucus-goers in the state want someone else to be their nominee, are undecided or have enough concerns about her not to commit.

True. But it also means that roughly 75 percent have decided that they want a nominee other than Obama, and roughly 80 percent want a nominee other than Edwards. These people have "enough concerns" about Edwards or Obama "not to commit."

*Of those Democrats who've decided on a preference, 53 percent say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. On the Republican side, it's 67 percent.

Of course that omits any reference by Yepsen to the analysis of the most recent Iowa poll from his own paper that indicates that Sen. Clinton's support is the strongest and least likely to change of any of the Democratic candidates.

*But early leads in national polls reflect only name recognition, and these two are well known. If others start winning, or beating expectations in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, those national surveys will shift overnight, thanks to the free media those candidates will receive.

Does any prospective Democratic Iowa caucus voter not know Obama or Edwards? Are they unfamiliar with Obama's "Edwards and Clinton voted for the war but I was against it" schtick? Do any of them not know that Edwards is now a screaming populist? The people of Iowa (bless their hearts) have endured nearly a year of incessant politicking. It seems to me to write off Hillary's Iowa support as coming from dunces who have picked her because they know her name is both incorrect and ungracious. Further, I think it is empirically disproven that Hillary's massive margin will be erased overnight if she loses in Iowa. As evidence, I offer the 1988 GOP caucuses, where George H. W. Bush lost to Bob Dole and then won out. I also offer the 1980 caucuses, where George Bush beat Ronald Reagan. This is not 2004, when we were faced with basically unknown candidates with the same message.

I suspect that Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic nomination for President. I don't know if she is going to win in Iowa or not. She seems to be a bit ahead, but not enought to confidently declare that a victory for Clinton is assured in these caucuses. But, I think that Yepsen's shoddy analysis does a disservice to his Iowa readers. The fact is Hillary could lose the Iowa caucuses and still win nearly every other primary with ease. What David Yepsen isn't telling is readers is that the converse is not true for Obama or Edwards. If they lose in Iowa, it is likely game over for them.

Two Polls Put Hillary at 50% or Greater

Gallup this time....

Clinton 50
Obama 21
Edwards 13

CNN too...

Clinton 51
Obama 21
Edwards 12

Remarkably consistent results.

Validation: Rothenberg Opines Edwards not More Electable

The money quote, from tomorrow's Real Clear Politics, which encapsulates what I have been saying about the relative lack of acquantence of voters with Edwards and Obama:

The former North Carolina Senator seems to think that his Southern accent and stories about his father's work in a textile mill and his mother's days as a letter carrier will ingratiate himself with moderate and conservative populists. But after Republicans hammer him for his expensive haircuts, huge home and liberal views, his appeal to swing and socially conservative voters will suffer. For now, Edwards' negatives aren't as high as Clinton's because he hasn't been a national target for more than a dozen years.

Exactly what I have been saying all year. Clinton has (only slightly) higher negatives because she has been the #1 target of the Republican filth machine for nearly two decades, and she is still standing tall. Edwards, Obama and the rest of the lot have not even begun to experience the scrutiny that these people will subject them to if they are nominated. We don't know if they can withstand it. Add into the the mix that Rothenberg presents above Edwards' involvement with hedge funds and forclosures of homes in New Orleans and I imagine that he would lose handily.

Cash on Hand: Democratic Primary

In spite of the fact that Drudge has been headlining Obama's $32M cash on hand figure for hours, Sen. Clinton has released her total in advance of the midnight deadline, and she actually leads by $3 million.

Time: Clinton Edges Obama In Cash on Hand

Heartbreaker: Newman Spins on Way to Easy Victory; Gordon Gets Win By Default

From the What Should Have Been Dept:

Ryan Newman ran the quickest lap of the Bank of America 500 last night while leading with three laps to go, and then promptly hit the wall on the backstrait. In the heartbreak of the season for those of us who root for the 12 team, we are left to ask:

What happened? Apparently he blew a tire...damn the luck.

Jeff Gordon, who was essentially completely out of gas, sputtered across the finish line for his 81st career victory. Is anyone who is not a Hendrick fan even paying attention anymore? I am about ready to chalk this season up to a total loss and start to get ready for the Daytona 500, hoping for better results.

More:

CBS Sportsline
CNN/SI

Clinton Leads by 21 in NH

Another poll in New Hampshire, another Clinton lead. Marist University (NY) conducted this poll last week showing the Democratic frontrunner with 43 percent of the respondents choosing Clinton. Even more telling is that when considering the poll's internals, Clinton leads among all segments.

Results:

Clinton 43
Obama 21
Edwards 12
Richardson 8

On the Republican side, the race is much closer and up-for-grabs.

Romney 26
Guiliani 21
McCain 17
Thompson 10